As of May 23, 2025, Adocia SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $3.72, this represents a potential upside of -680833.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -25751.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -680833.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.2% - 7.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $9 million in 12-2024 to $32979 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 127.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 9 | 333% |
| 12-2025 | 70 | 653% |
| 12-2026 | 62 | -12% |
| 12-2027 | 176 | 185% |
| 12-2028 | 439 | 150% |
| 12-2029 | 1031 | 135% |
| 12-2030 | 2312 | 124% |
| 12-2031 | 4814 | 108% |
| 12-2032 | 9677 | 101% |
| 12-2033 | 18245 | 89% |
| 12-2034 | 32979 | 81% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -100% in 12-2024 to -87% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (9) | -100% |
| 12-2025 | (63) | -89% |
| 12-2026 | (54) | -89% |
| 12-2027 | (154) | -88% |
| 12-2028 | (384) | -87% |
| 12-2029 | (897) | -87% |
| 12-2030 | (2,008) | -87% |
| 12-2031 | (4,178) | -87% |
| 12-2032 | (8,389) | -87% |
| 12-2033 | (15,801) | -87% |
| 12-2034 | (28,531) | -87% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 12% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 2 |
| 12-2026 | 3 |
| 12-2027 | 8 |
| 12-2028 | 18 |
| 12-2029 | 43 |
| 12-2030 | 97 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 123 |
| Days Inventory | 54 |
| Days Payables | 1,440 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (54) | (0) | 8 | (12) | (51) |
| 2026 | (46) | (0) | 7 | 7 | (61) |
| 2027 | (131) | (0) | 21 | 34 | (187) |
| 2028 | (327) | (0) | 53 | (0) | (379) |
| 2029 | (763) | (1) | 125 | 105 | (991) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -25751.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -680833.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Adocia SA (ADOC.PA) a buy or a sell? Adocia SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Adocia SA (ADOC.PA) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -680833.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $3.72.