As of June 21, 2025, ADES International Holding PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $17.60 per share. With the current market price at $12.35, this represents a potential upside of 42.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $6.40 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $17.60 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -48.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 42.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $452 million in 12-2020 to $668 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 452 | 5% |
| 12-2021 | 472 | 4% |
| 12-2022 | 481 | 2% |
| 12-2023 | 517 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 537 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 548 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 579 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 605 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 617 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 630 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 668 | 6% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 5% in 12-2020 to 6% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 22 | 5% |
| 12-2021 | 30 | 6% |
| 12-2022 | 30 | 6% |
| 12-2023 | 33 | 6% |
| 12-2024 | 34 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 35 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 37 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 38 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 39 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 40 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 42 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $116 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 49% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 135 |
| 12-2022 | 171 |
| 12-2023 | 202 |
| 12-2024 | 219 |
| 12-2025 | 248 |
| 12-2026 | 259 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 143 |
| Days Inventory | 77 |
| Days Payables | 91 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 223 | 3 | 229 | 23 | (32) |
| 2022 | 261 | 3 | 234 | (40) | 65 |
| 2023 | 299 | 3 | 251 | 35 | 10 |
| 2024 | 319 | 3 | 261 | 5 | 50 |
| 2025 | 351 | 3 | 266 | (5) | 87 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 6.40 | -48.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 17.60 | 42.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 11.97 | -3.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 14.99 | 21.3% |
Is ADES International Holding PLC (ADES.L) a buy or a sell? ADES International Holding PLC is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, ADES International Holding PLC (ADES.L) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 42.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $12.35.