As of May 31, 2025, Bitcoin Group SE's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $8.47 to $56.92 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $56.92 | +31.8% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $28.77 | -33.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $24.91 | -42.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $8.47 | -80.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $25.72 | -40.5% |
Is Bitcoin Group SE (ADE.DE) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $43.20, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Bitcoin Group SE's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.8% | 3.3% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| Cost of equity | 4.7% | 6.7% |
| Cost of debt | 7.0% | 8.2% |
| Tax rate | 31.2% | 33.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.7% | 6.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $29 | $134M | 90.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $57 | $275M | 84.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $11 | $48M | 72.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $24 | $110M | 60.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $7M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.7% - 4.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $98M - $140M |
| Net Debt | $(9)M |
| Equity Value | $108M - $150M |
| Outstanding Shares | 5M |
| Fair Value | $22 - $30 |
| Selected Fair Value | $25.72 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $216M |
| Enterprise Value | $207M |
| Trailing P/E | 359.85 |
| Forward P/E | 114.08 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 7.00 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 45.05% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $17.08 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $7.19 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $4.98 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.27 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $2.57 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $33.09 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Bitcoin Group SE's weighted average intrinsic value is $33.09, which is approximately 23.4% below the current market price of $43.20.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Bitcoin Group SE is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.