As of October 10, 2025, ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $56.21 per share. With the current market price at $71.20, this represents a potential upside of -21.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $45.01 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $56.21 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -36.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -21.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.4% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $41633 million in 12-2024 to $73977 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 41633 | 16% |
| 12-2025 | 45814 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 46966 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 49801 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 53072 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 56209 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 60433 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 63591 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 66771 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 72383 | 8% |
| 12-2034 | 73977 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2024 to 2% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1080 | 3% |
| 12-2025 | 875 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 897 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 951 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1014 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1074 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 1154 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1215 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 1275 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 1383 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 1413 | 2% |
with a 5-year average of $541 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 516 |
| 12-2026 | 593 |
| 12-2027 | 699 |
| 12-2028 | 774 |
| 12-2029 | 826 |
| 12-2030 | 874 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 81 |
| Days Inventory | 13 |
| Days Payables | 114 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | 951 | 109 | 376 | 239 | 228 |
| 2026 | 2014 | 224 | 770 | 22 | 998 |
| 2027 | 2206 | 237 | 817 | (19) | 1172 |
| 2028 | 2380 | 253 | 870 | 198 | 1059 |
| 2029 | 2527 | 268 | 922 | 88 | 1250 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 45.01 | -36.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 56.21 | -21.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 34.02 | -52.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 45.93 | -35.5% |
Is ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA (ACS.MC) a buy or a sell? ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, ACS Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA (ACS.MC) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -21.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $71.20.