As of May 29, 2025, Aclaris Therapeutics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $1.41, this represents a potential upside of -4265.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -4054.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -4265.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.8% - 6.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $19 million in 12-2024 to $29 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 19 | 40% |
| 12-2025 | 20 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 20 | 4% |
| 12-2027 | 22 | 5% |
| 12-2028 | 23 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 24 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 24 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 26 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 27 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 28 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 29 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -705% in 12-2024 to -499% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (132) | -705% |
| 12-2025 | (101) | -512% |
| 12-2026 | (104) | -509% |
| 12-2027 | (109) | -506% |
| 12-2028 | (115) | -504% |
| 12-2029 | (119) | -501% |
| 12-2030 | (122) | -501% |
| 12-2031 | (131) | -500% |
| 12-2032 | (136) | -500% |
| 12-2033 | (140) | -500% |
| 12-2034 | (147) | -499% |
with a 5-year average of $8 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 42% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 9 |
| 12-2026 | 11 |
| 12-2027 | 13 |
| 12-2028 | 14 |
| 12-2029 | 9 |
| 12-2030 | 9 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 5 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 202 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | (138) | (37) | 8 | (4) | (105) |
| 2026 | (141) | (39) | 9 | 2 | (112) |
| 2027 | (146) | (40) | 9 | 0 | (115) |
| 2028 | (153) | (43) | 10 | (1) | (119) |
| 2029 | (164) | (44) | 10 | 0 | (130) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -4054.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -4265.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Aclaris Therapeutics Inc (ACRS) a buy or a sell? Aclaris Therapeutics Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aclaris Therapeutics Inc (ACRS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -4265.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $1.41.