As of June 6, 2025, Axcelis Technologies Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $61.64 to $101.40 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $101.40 | +68.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $94.97 | +57.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $68.70 | +13.8% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $71.38 | +18.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $61.64 | +2.1% |
Is Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $60.35, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Axcelis Technologies Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.3 | 1.46 |
| Cost of equity | 9.8% | 13.0% |
| Cost of debt | 4.5% | 10.5% |
| Tax rate | 11.1% | 11.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| After-tax WACC | 9.7% | 12.9% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $95 | $2,911M | 70.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $101 | $3,117M | 50.2% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $87 | $2,645M | 67.3% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $96 | $2,947M | 47.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $204M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 12.9% - 9.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,576M - $2,103M |
| Net Debt | $(141)M |
| Equity Value | $1,717M - $2,244M |
| Outstanding Shares | 32M |
| Fair Value | $53 - $70 |
| Selected Fair Value | $61.64 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $1939M |
| Enterprise Value | $1798M |
| Trailing P/E | 10.83 |
| Forward P/E | 11.23 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.25 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.02 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $30.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $23.74 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $13.74 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $10.71 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $6.16 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $84.78 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Axcelis Technologies Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $84.78, which is approximately 40.5% above the current market price of $60.35.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Axcelis Technologies Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.