As of May 27, 2025, Barrick Gold Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $14.28 to $42.93 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $42.93 | +64.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $39.79 | +52.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $30.62 | +17.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $20.49 | -21.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $14.28 | -45.4% |
Is Barrick Gold Corp (ABX.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $26.18, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Barrick Gold Corp's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.1 | 1.22 |
| Cost of equity | 8.8% | 11.6% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| Tax rate | 30.0% | 31.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| After-tax WACC | 8.0% | 10.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $29 | $50,667M | 71.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $31 | $54,609M | 51.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $29 | $50,179M | 71.5% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $31 | $53,941M | 50.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,686M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.6% - 8.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $15,975M - $21,196M |
| Net Debt | $623M |
| Equity Value | $15,352M - $20,573M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1,727M |
| Fair Value | $9 - $12 |
| Selected Fair Value | $14.28 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $45215M |
| Enterprise Value | $46071M |
| Trailing P/E | 14.17 |
| Forward P/E | 9.32 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 5.75 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 210.48% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 6.21% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.16 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $12.88 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $9.95 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $6.12 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.07 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.43 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $33.45 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Barrick Gold Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $33.45, which is approximately 27.8% above the current market price of $26.18.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Barrick Gold Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.