What is ABT's Intrinsic value?

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 4, 2025, Abbott Laboratories's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $70.73 to $299.55 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $167.72 +25.4%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $147.52 +10.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $118.76 -11.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $299.55 +124.0%
Earnings Power Value $70.73 -47.1%

Is Abbott Laboratories (ABT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $133.71, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Abbott Laboratories's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.55 0.72
Cost of equity 6.4% 8.9%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 14.0% 15.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.06 0.06
After-tax WACC 6.2% 8.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $41,950 (FY12-2024) to $63,848 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 32% to 24%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 5% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $148 $263,369M 86.0%
10-Year Growth $168 $298,521M 74.0%
5-Year EBITDA $112 $200,905M 81.6%
10-Year EBITDA $131 $235,099M 67.0%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 28.9%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.6%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $118.76 (-11.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 8.9% (Low) to 6.4% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $92 to $507
  • Selected fair value: $299.55 (124.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $9,359M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.6% - 6.2%
Enterprise Value $108,810M - $150,729M
Net Debt $6,710M
Equity Value $102,100M - $144,019M
Outstanding Shares 1,740M
Fair Value $59 - $83
Selected Fair Value $70.73

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $232634M
Enterprise Value $239344M
Trailing P/E 17.23
Forward P/E 32.80
Trailing EV/EBITDA 15.40
Current Dividend Yield 168.02%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 10.64%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.06

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $50.32
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $36.88
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $23.75
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $44.93
Earnings Power Value 10% $7.07
Weighted Average 100% $162.96

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Abbott Laboratories's weighted average intrinsic value is $162.96, which is approximately 21.9% above the current market price of $133.71.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (32% to 24% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.06)
  • Historical dividend growth of 10.64%

Given these factors, we believe Abbott Laboratories is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.