As of May 23, 2025, Albioma SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $47.51 per share. With the current market price at $47.14, this represents a potential upside of 0.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $27.85 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $47.51 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -40.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 0.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.1% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $573 million in 12-2021 to $946 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 573 | 13% |
| 12-2022 | 566 | -1% |
| 12-2023 | 599 | 6% |
| 12-2024 | 639 | 7% |
| 12-2025 | 693 | 8% |
| 12-2026 | 746 | 8% |
| 12-2027 | 788 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 843 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 877 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 928 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 946 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 12% in 12-2021 to 14% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 71 | 12% |
| 12-2022 | 70 | 12% |
| 12-2023 | 76 | 13% |
| 12-2024 | 84 | 13% |
| 12-2025 | 94 | 14% |
| 12-2026 | 105 | 14% |
| 12-2027 | 111 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 118 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 123 | 14% |
| 12-2030 | 130 | 14% |
| 12-2031 | 133 | 14% |
with a 5-year average of $149 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 31% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 152 |
| 12-2023 | 161 |
| 12-2024 | 171 |
| 12-2025 | 189 |
| 12-2026 | 203 |
| 12-2027 | 217 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 51 |
| Days Inventory | 145 |
| Days Payables | 162 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2022 | 139 | 14 | 89 | (9) | 45 |
| 2023 | 298 | 31 | 188 | 9 | 71 |
| 2024 | 321 | 34 | 200 | 8 | 79 |
| 2025 | 356 | 38 | 217 | 4 | 97 |
| 2026 | 387 | 42 | 234 | 9 | 102 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 27.85 | -40.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 47.51 | 0.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 73.48 | 55.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 87.10 | 84.8% |
Is Albioma SA (ABIO.PA) a buy or a sell? Albioma SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Albioma SA (ABIO.PA) appears to be slightly undervalued with upside potential of 0.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a hold with potential to accumulate at the current market price of $47.14.