As of May 27, 2025, Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $226.00, this represents a potential upside of -271.6%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -280.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -271.6% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 11.0% |
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2023 | (20) | 51% |
| 04-2024 | (21) | 5% |
| 04-2025 | (21) | 3% |
| 04-2026 | (22) | 4% |
| 04-2027 | (23) | 2% |
| 04-2028 | (23) | 3% |
| 04-2029 | (24) | 2% |
| 04-2030 | (24) | 2% |
| 04-2031 | (25) | 2% |
| 04-2032 | (25) | 2% |
| 04-2033 | (26) | 4% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 120% in 04-2023 to -2942% by 04-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 04-2023 | (23) | 120% |
| 04-2024 | (24) | -2390% |
| 04-2025 | (24) | -2438% |
| 04-2026 | (25) | -2533% |
| 04-2027 | (26) | -2569% |
| 04-2028 | (26) | -2633% |
| 04-2029 | (27) | -2683% |
| 04-2030 | (27) | -2734% |
| 04-2031 | (28) | -2786% |
| 04-2032 | (28) | -2839% |
| 04-2033 | (29) | -2942% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 04-2024 | 0 |
| 04-2025 | 0 |
| 04-2026 | 0 |
| 04-2027 | 0 |
| 04-2028 | 0 |
| 04-2029 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | (1) |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 126 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | (24) | (0) | (0) | (1) | (23) |
| 2025 | (25) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (25) |
| 2026 | (26) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (26) |
| 2027 | (26) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (26) |
| 2028 | (27) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (26) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -280.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -271.6% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust PLC (ABD.L) a buy or a sell? Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Aberdeen New Dawn Investment Trust PLC (ABD.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -271.6%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $226.00.