As of August 5, 2025, Apple Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $73.13 to $224.22 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $224.22 | +10.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $200.64 | -1.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $161.45 | -20.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $131.20 | -35.5% |
| Earnings Power Value | $73.13 | -64.0% |
Is Apple Inc (AAPL) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $203.35, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Apple Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.9 | 0.99 |
| Cost of equity | 8.0% | 10.4% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 14.6% | 15.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.9% | 10.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $201 | $3,062,134M | 81.4% |
| 10-Year Growth | $224 | $3,414,321M | 64.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $164 | $2,517,070M | 77.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $190 | $2,901,951M | 58.5% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $102,854M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.2% - 7.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,008,161M - $1,307,152M |
| Net Debt | $65,429M |
| Equity Value | $942,732M - $1,241,723M |
| Outstanding Shares | 14,936M |
| Fair Value | $63 - $83 |
| Selected Fair Value | $73.13 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $3037195M |
| Enterprise Value | $3102624M |
| Trailing P/E | 30.59 |
| Forward P/E | 25.14 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 12.75 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 50.83% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 1.99% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.04 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $67.27 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $50.16 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $32.29 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $19.68 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.31 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $176.71 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Apple Inc's intrinsic value is $176.71, which is approximately 13.1% below the current market price of $203.35.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Apple Inc is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.