As of June 12, 2025, Atresmedia Corporacion de Medios de Comunicacion SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $9.39 per share. With the current market price at $6.01, this represents a potential upside of 56.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $8.73 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $9.39 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 45.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 56.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.9% - 8.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1018 million in 12-2024 to $1300 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1018 | 5% |
| 12-2025 | 1037 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 1058 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 1079 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1101 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1142 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 1165 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1202 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 1242 | 3% |
| 12-2033 | 1274 | 3% |
| 12-2034 | 1300 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 12% in 12-2024 to 12% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 120 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 122 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 125 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 127 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 130 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 135 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 138 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 142 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 146 | 12% |
| 12-2033 | 150 | 12% |
| 12-2034 | 153 | 12% |
with a 5-year average of $21 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 22 |
| 12-2026 | 23 |
| 12-2027 | 24 |
| 12-2028 | 23 |
| 12-2029 | 23 |
| 12-2030 | 24 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 98 |
| Days Inventory | 209 |
| Days Payables | 229 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 185 | 41 | 22 | 30 | 92 |
| 2026 | 190 | 42 | 23 | 2 | 123 |
| 2027 | 194 | 43 | 23 | (2) | 130 |
| 2028 | 196 | 44 | 24 | 11 | 118 |
| 2029 | 203 | 45 | 25 | 9 | 125 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 8.73 | 45.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 9.39 | 56.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.50 | -8.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 6.80 | 13.2% |
Is Atresmedia Corporacion de Medios de Comunicacion SA (A3M.MC) a buy or a sell? Atresmedia Corporacion de Medios de Comunicacion SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Atresmedia Corporacion de Medios de Comunicacion SA (A3M.MC) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 56.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $6.01.