As of June 20, 2025, Tellhow Sci-Tech Co Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $5.94 per share. With the current market price at $8.76, this represents a potential upside of -175.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $5.94 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -32.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -175.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.5% - 7.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4283 million in 12-2023 to $10677 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 4283 | 31% |
| 12-2024 | 7341 | 71% |
| 12-2025 | 8457 | 15% |
| 12-2026 | 6481 | -23% |
| 12-2027 | 6989 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 7573 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 8104 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 8611 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 9268 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 9917 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 10677 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2023 to 19% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 133 | 3% |
| 12-2024 | 442 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 744 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 741 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 974 | 14% |
| 12-2028 | 1235 | 16% |
| 12-2029 | 1358 | 17% |
| 12-2030 | 1482 | 17% |
| 12-2031 | 1636 | 18% |
| 12-2032 | 1794 | 18% |
| 12-2033 | 1978 | 19% |
with a 5-year average of $209 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 217 |
| 12-2025 | 234 |
| 12-2026 | 233 |
| 12-2027 | 244 |
| 12-2028 | 275 |
| 12-2029 | 280 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 277 |
| Days Inventory | 189 |
| Days Payables | 116 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2024 | (4) | 44 | 68 | 434 | (551) |
| 2025 | 294 | 299 | 315 | 1381 | (1,701) |
| 2026 | 519 | 298 | 242 | (1,666) | 1645 |
| 2027 | 798 | 392 | 261 | 135 | 10 |
| 2028 | 1127 | 497 | 282 | 610 | (263) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 5.94 | -32.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -175.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.56 | -59.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 7.78 | -11.1% |
Is Tellhow Sci-Tech Co Ltd (600590.SS) a buy or a sell? Tellhow Sci-Tech Co Ltd is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Tellhow Sci-Tech Co Ltd (600590.SS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -175.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $8.76.