As of August 30, 2026, Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $76.20 per share. With the current market price at $41.57, this represents a potential upside of 83.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $30.84 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $76.20 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -25.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 83.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.2% - 12.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $4045 million in 12-2025 to $15725 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 4045 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 5435 | 34% |
| 12-2027 | 6101 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 7128 | 17% |
| 12-2029 | 8218 | 15% |
| 12-2030 | 9448 | 15% |
| 12-2031 | 10792 | 14% |
| 12-2032 | 12265 | 14% |
| 12-2033 | 13324 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 14510 | 9% |
| 12-2035 | 15725 | 8% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 12-2025 to 24% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 119 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 378 | 7% |
| 12-2027 | 650 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 1011 | 14% |
| 12-2029 | 1440 | 18% |
| 12-2030 | 1956 | 21% |
| 12-2031 | 2300 | 21% |
| 12-2032 | 2687 | 22% |
| 12-2033 | 2998 | 22% |
| 12-2034 | 3349 | 23% |
| 12-2035 | 3721 | 24% |
with a 5-year average of $342 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 10% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2026 | 403 |
| 12-2027 | 494 |
| 12-2028 | 590 |
| 12-2029 | 678 |
| 12-2030 | 736 |
| 12-2031 | 845 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 123 |
| Days Inventory | 52 |
| Days Payables | 30 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2026 | 685 | 42 | 413 | 240 | (10) |
| 2027 | 1328 | 97 | 618 | 337 | 276 |
| 2028 | 1852 | 150 | 722 | 427 | 553 |
| 2029 | 2449 | 214 | 833 | 348 | 1054 |
| 2030 | 3117 | 290 | 957 | 494 | 1375 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 30.84 | -25.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 76.20 | 83.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 185.40 | 346.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 260.88 | 527.6% |
Is Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co Ltd (300863.SZ) a buy or a sell? Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co Ltd (300863.SZ) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 83.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $41.57.