As of June 21, 2025, Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $18.55 per share. With the current market price at $15.90, this represents a potential upside of 16.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $13.65 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $18.55 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -14.1% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 16.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 9.8% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1732 million in 12-2024 to $5021 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1732 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 2370 | 37% |
| 12-2026 | 2614 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 2993 | 15% |
| 12-2028 | 3332 | 11% |
| 12-2029 | 3580 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 3830 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 4098 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 4385 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 4692 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 5021 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 103 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 141 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 155 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 178 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 198 | 6% |
| 12-2029 | 213 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 228 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 244 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 261 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 279 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 299 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $147 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 8% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 161 |
| 12-2026 | 173 |
| 12-2027 | 179 |
| 12-2028 | 201 |
| 12-2029 | 236 |
| 12-2030 | 260 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 20 |
| Days Inventory | 38 |
| Days Payables | 57 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 248 | 18 | 141 | (1) | 90 |
| 2026 | 360 | 26 | 208 | (6) | 132 |
| 2027 | 393 | 30 | 238 | 19 | 106 |
| 2028 | 439 | 33 | 265 | (0) | 142 |
| 2029 | 493 | 36 | 284 | 3 | 170 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 13.65 | -14.1% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 18.55 | 16.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 53.00 | 233.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 56.12 | 253.0% |
Is Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co Ltd (002732.SZ) a buy or a sell? Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Guangdong Yantang Dairy Co Ltd (002732.SZ) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 16.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $15.90.